Poker, Football, and everything sports

Its NFL Time Baby!!!

tayke2 On 10:27 AM

Well it truly is the best time of the year. Football is starting, and baseball thankfully is winding down. And boy the first NFL Sunday might be better then Christmas. Might be! Tomorrow I'll post my fantasy teams, but today I'm going to post my top 5 bets for this week. I'll be starting with #5, the one I'm least comfortable with, and ending with my #1 slam dunk sure fire bet. And here..we..go.

5. Indianapolis Colts(-2.5) at Houston Texans- Whenever these two teams play: you can count on two things almost everytime. 1. The Colts will win. 2. It will be extremelyyyy close. But for this year, I'm scared that the Texans will be very fired up and will want to make a big statement early. More importantly, I can very easily see the Colts win with a score of 21-20 or 23-21. On paper, its a good bet, but as you will see, there are far better bets out there this week.

4. San Francisco 49ers(-3) at Seattle Seahawks- Again, a bet that on paper looks like a slam dunk. But there are alot of intangibles here that can't be measured on paper. This will be the first game of the Pete Carrol era, and the Hawks will be at home. Maybe the most important factor, the 49ers will have to deal with the burden of being the division favorite for the first time in years, which is alot to handle for such a young team. I still think the niners win by a touchdown, but its not the best bet out there.

3. Carolina Panthers at New York Giants(-7)- 7 points is alot to give up to a team in the NFL, but I think at home the Giants are a good bet here. The Giants should be able to load up the box to try and shut down Williams and Stewart, and Manning should have a field day on this defense that lost its best player, Julius Peppers. My guess is the G men take this one 31-21.

2. Miami Dolphins(-3) at Buffalo Bills- Lost amongst all of the hype surrounding the New York Jets and the constant admiration of the New England Patriots is the fact that the Fins are a very solid ball club. They have a great 1-2 punch at RB in Brown and Williams, an emerging QB in Chad Henne, and a stud wide out now in Brandon Marshall. Combine that with a solid defense, and there is no reason why they shouldn't be able to cover a measly 3 points against a Bills team that will be fighting for one thing this year: the #1 pick next year.

1. Green Bay Packers(-3) at Philadelphia Eagles- Clearly Vegas knows something that we don't. Clearly the fix is in and somehow the Eagles will cover this and Vegas will make bank, because nobody is betting Philly here. You have the odds on Super Bowl favorite in the NFC coming into Philly, where Kevin Kolb will be making his first start as "the guy" at Quarterback. Combine that with a young offense and an aging defense, and there is no reason why at any point of the year, at any place on earth, the Packers aren't at least a touchdown better then the Eagles. But as they often say, that is why they play the game.

Well those are my picks. Stay tuned for my fantasy matchups later. Also, I will be playing 4 mini ftops next week. On Tuesday, I'm playing the $22 half PL holdem half PL Omaha. At 2, playing the $22 turbo holdem. On Wednesday, playing the $33 omaha heads up, and wrapping it up on Thursday with the $22 7 game limit. Will post other events if I satellite into them. As always you can follow all my poker and football thoughts at my twitter tayke2. Thanks for reading.

The Big One

tayke2 On 12:00 PM

Over the past 3 days, I have narrowed the NFL down from 32 teams all the way to 2. Now its time to see who I think will take home the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Green Bay Packers: The offense is led by Aaron Rodgers, who will be handing off to a solid RB in Ryan Grant and passing to a core of veteran yet still talented wide receivers. But the most important thing about this team is the improvement of their defense. They would have made a run last year, but their defense couldn't stop Arizona for over 4 hours, and they paid for it. But now, they are good enough to possibly lead this team all the way.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts came painfully close last year, and I can promise you that no one is more hungry to get another ring then Peyton Manning. I'm sure he is fed up of putting up MVP season after MVP season, yet is still behind Tom Brady in many minds due to his singular Super Bowl ring. Like the Packers, the Colts defense has also improved over last year's defense, and the matchup could be one for the ages.

What we have is two great offenses and two improved defenses . But given that the Colts have a slightly better offense, I'm giving the Colts the edge here. My guess: the Colts squeak out what could be an instant classic: 28-24.

NFL Playoff Predictions

tayke2 On 12:00 PM

In the past two days, I have narrowed 32 teams down to 12. Today, I will knock it down to the final two. Lets start in the AFC. The Colts and Chargers will get byes.

#6 Houston Texans at #3 New York Jets- Could be a really solid game. Classic battle of offense vs defense, and the battle of Andre Johnson vs Darrelle Revis would be fantastic to watch. I think the home field would be the deciding factor in what would be a matchup of two very different structured teams yet two similar teams talent wise. I like the Jets here 24-20.

#5 Cincinatti Bengals at #4 Baltimore Ravens- In what would be the 3rd installment of the rivalry, I like the Bengals to pull a bit of an upset here. In case you couldn't gather, I love the combination of TO and Ochocinco. And Carson Palmer is hungry to prove that he's back to his pro bowl ways. I like the Bengals to pull off the upset here 24-17.

2nd Round

#5 Cincinatti Bengals at #1 Indianapolis Colts- This is arguably the best defense that the Colts have had in years. Combine that with an offense that will be getting Anthony Gonzalez, and I think they will be too much for the upstart Bengals to handle. I see the Colts winning this one fairly easily, as I don't think its a great matchup for the Bengals. Colts 35-17.

#3 New York Jets at #2 San Diego Chargers- A rematch of last year's AFC semifinals, I don't see why the result will be any different this year. The Jets are vastly improved on both offense and defense, while the Chargers lost LT on offense and Cromartie on defense. The funny thing is: both ended up in a Jets uniform. I honestly don't see this being very close either, surprising because the Chargers will be at home. Jets win 27-14.

AFC Championship

#3 New York Jets at #1 Indianapolis Colts- Once again a rematch from last year. This is a matchup of one vastly improved team vs a team that somehow managed to get even better then they already were. I once again am giving the edge to Peyton Manning and the Colts in what I imagine will actually be a tough hard fought win. Colts take it 17-13.

AFC Champs: Indianapolis Colts.

Lets move to the NFC now, where I have the Saints and Packers getting byes.

#6 Atlanta Falcons at #3 Dallas Cowboys- Dallas has arguably the most talented team in the league. They have too many running backs to know what to do with, and if Dez Bryant can bring some of the magic he had in college, the passing game will be very scary. Add to that a solid defense, and I don't think Dallas will have much issue here with the Falcons. Cowboys win 31-17.

#5 Minnesota Vikings at #4 San Francisco 49ers- We are used to seeing the Cardinals in the role of home team underdog, but this year its being played by the 49ers. Here are the facts: despite being at home and being a higher seed, the 49ers aren't as good as Minnesota. They will put up a good fight, but I see the Vikes coming through here and winning 28-20.

2nd Round

#5 Minnesota Vikings at #1 Green Bay Packers- This would be a sick playoff matchup. Brett Favre's apprentice in Green Bay Aaron Rodgers could be the last QB to defeat Brett Favre. Just has a nice ring of justice to it doesn't it. And i see it happening. I think the Packers have taken the step this year past the Vikings, and will use the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to their biggest advantage. Packers take this one 27-17.

#3 Dallas Cowboys at #2 New Orleans Saints- Last year, the Saints were 13-0 and looking for a perfect season when they went into Dallas and got beat by the Cowboys. This is the one team that matchups up very well with the Saints, and though it kills me to say it, I think the Boys will dethrone the Saints in they meet in the playoffs. Cowboys pull off the upset 30-24.

NFC Championship

#3 Dallas Cowboys at #1 Green Bay Packers- Its hard to imagine a more powerful home field advantage then what the Packers would have for the NFC Championship game were they to get there. The frozen tundra would be a nightmare to play on, and any team, let alone a predominately dome playing team, would struggle. I think Aaron Rodgers leads his team to victory and to their first superbowl in 13 years. Packers win 24-14.

NFC Champions: Green Bay Packers

And with that, you can now see that my Super Bowl matchup is the Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers. Be sure to tune in tomorrow to see my breakdown of this potential matchup and see who I think will be hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy in February. Thanks for reading.

NFC Preview

tayke2 On 12:00 PM

Yesterday I broke down the AFC. Today we will take a look at the NFC.

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys(11-5)- This has always been the toughest division to pick. I for one will rarely put any money on games involving these teams, because its so unpredictable. But this year, the Cowboys seem to be a cut above the rest. They can still be shaky at times, but I see them going 4-2 in the division and going to the playoffs again.

2. Philadelphia Eagles(9-7)- The Eagles will be preparing for live without McNabb, and its going to be tough. Kevin Klob is a solid QB, but I think he will have a better sophomore season as starter. Also, the defense is aging and could do for some new faces for the future.

3. New York Giants(9-7)- The Giants are always a tough team to figure out. They could get hot and reel off 6 straight games(look at their super bowl year) or they could lose to the likes of the Redskins at home. I would be surprised if the Giants either made a run at the playoffs or fall flat. I see an 8-8 or 9-7 record for them.

4. Washington Redskins(6-10)- Mcnabb should be a great addition to this team, but they are unlucky to be in a division that is chalked full of evenly distributed talent. It will be tough for them to get any momentum going this year, as they will be facing a division opponent 6 times this year. They could come through and surprise people with a 10-6 season and a playoff birth as they have known to do, but I see that more so for next year then this year.

NFC South

1. Green Bay Packers(12-4)- Its very easy to argue that the two best teams in the NFC are in this divison. I'm going to give the nod to the Packers though for one reason: Aaron Rodgers. He has had back to back break out years, and now he is the favorite in many minds to be the MVP. And it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Don't be surprised to see Rodgers put up a 4500 yards 40 TD year on this solid offense.

2. Minnesota Vikings(11-5)- Brett Favre coming back saved all of the fans in Minnesota and those who put money on them right after last year ended. But the loss of Sidney Rice for the first half of the year and the health concerns over Percy Harvin will slow down Peterson and the offense. They could very well get off to a 3-3 type start before making a playoff run when Rice returns.

3. Chicago Bears(6-10)- This year could very well define Jay Cutler's career, or at least his career in Chicago. I think he will have quite a year, as it is always difficult for a QB to pick up an offense well in the first year. Its a shame that a player like Brian Urlacher is no longer on a super bowl contender. A player with his talent and work ethic deserves to contend for a ring.

4. Detorit Lions(3-13)- The Lions have a great thing going with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but until they get a more improved offensive line and a better defense, they can get used to being a bottom feeder.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints(12-4)- The Saints are coming off their dream season, and are looking good for a potential repeat. The Saints are returning nearly all of their top players on offense, and most of their stars on defense. It will be very interesting to see how the Saints play now that they finally, for the first time ever, have a target on their backs.

2. Atlanta Falcons(10-6)- Atlanta has been one of the most underrated and consistent teams of the past decade. They were usually in contention and snuck into the playoffs on more then one occasion, and I see that happening again this year. Matt Ryan is due for a breakout season, and I think he will make the jump to the outside of the elite QB group this year.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers(5-11)- Tampa has a solid young QB in Josh Freeman who could turn out to be a great pick for them. Combine that with you talent on both sides, and the Bucs could surprise some people this year and make a run at .500. But they won't be making the Playoffs this year.

4. Carolina Panthers(4-12)- Talk about a fall from grace. Its amazing what one game can do. Two years ago, the Panthers were 12-4, the 2nd seed in the playoffs, and one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. After getting utterly destroyed by the Cardinals at home, the Panthers, and more importantly Jake Delhomme, spiraled out of control last year, leading to his untimely exit. Now its the Matt Moore era, but don't be surprised to see that turn into the Jimmy Clauson era by the end of the year.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers(10-6)- This is the ultimate case of a division being gift wrapped for a team. If they don't win the division this year, they may not for years to come. Arizona will be recovering from life without Kurt Warner, Seattle will be adjusting to the Pete Carroll era, and the Rams, are well, the Rams.

2. Arizona Cardinals(6-10)- It is purely my little faith in Derek Anderson that has these guys at 2nd place. It is tough to believe that one player could make that much of a difference, but Kurt Warner is just that. Add in the loss of Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald will be getting picked on all year, seeing double and probably triple coverage at times.

3. Seattle Seahawks(6-10)- It will be interesting to see how Carroll adjusts to the NFL game. He will have to deal with figured out whether to still to an aging Matt Hasselback. And with the release of Housmandzadeh, Carroll is putting alot of faith in former Trojan Mike Williams. The Hawks could be back on top in a couple years, but this year they will be getting their feet wet.

4. St Louis Rams(2-14)- Two things you should know about Sam Bradford:1. He will have a bad year starting in St Louis, and could have a bad sophomore season. 2. It won't be all his fault. It's unfortunate when #1 QB's are thrown right into a no win situation(look at David Carr and Jamarcus Russell) and Bradford will be the victim this year.

Playoff Seedings

1. Green Bay Packers

2. New Orleans Saints

3. Dallas Cowboys

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. Minnesota Vikings

6. Atlanta Falcons

Be sure to check in tomorrow as I will be narrowing my predictions down to the biggest stage there is: The Super Bowl. Thanks for reading.

NFL Preview: The AFC

tayke2 On 12:00 PM

AFC Preview

AFC East

1. 1. New York Jets(11-5)- If Sanchez had a couple more years under his belt, I would have them at 12-4 or 13-3. But I think his inexperience will cost them a couple games. But with the combination of this nasty defense and a solid offense, they should take this division. If Revis signs, bump them up to 13-3.

2. 2. New England Patriots(10-6)- I think this is another time where a team with double digit victories will miss the playoffs. I feel that this season more than others there are about 10 reallllly good teams and then the rest of the league. The Pats are just on the border of that list, and with the injury to Welker limiting his effectiveness in the slot, I see the Pats just missing out on the playoffs this year.

3. 3. Miami Dolphins(7-9)- The Dolphins would have a decent shot at a winning season if they were in another division I think. They have some solid players on offense, but they’ve lost the star players that made their defense great in years past. Give them a couple more years and they could be back on top of the East.

4.4. Buffalo Bills(3-13)- They just have very little going for them. CJ Spiller could be a greattttt player, and they have some good young talent on defense. But they are a handful of drafts and good free agents away from being a threat in this league again.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens(11-5)- The years of another super bowl might be running out in Baltimore. They have turned from a defensive juggernaut to now a formidable offense. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are winding down their hall of fame careers, and Terrell Suggs is an absolute beast. The Ravens are my dark horse to make a super bowl run this year.

2. Cincinnati Bengals(11-5)- I have really high expectations for the “Batman and Robin” combo of TO and Ochocinco. TO will have to find something new to complain about. In the past, he has complained about either not having a good quarterback: he’s got Carson Palmer, good wide receiver help: he’s got 85, or being on a good team: Bengals are good. Combine this good offense with an up and coming defense, and the Bengals should be playing in January.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers(9-7)- Even though Big Ben is only suspended for 4 games now instead of 6, his absence will be too much to overcome in this tough division. The defense mite be able to get them into the playoffs, but my guess is that they will fall to 1-3 and not be able to recover.

4. Cleveland Browns(3-13)- This team actually has some promise, but considering they will likely go 0-6 in their division, I don’t like their chances to get much done.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts(13-3): Same ole story here. The Colts are virtually unstoppable when they are clicking on all cylinders, and they are the odds on favorite to get back to the Super bowl this year, and rightly so.

2. Houston Texans(10-6)- I think this is finally the year that the Texans break through and make the playoffs. They will really miss Brian Cushing his first 4 games, but he won’t be as much of a game changer as the absence of Big Ben. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson might be the best QB-WR combo in the league, and their young defense is maturing very fast.

3. Tennessee Titans(6-10)- Another case of a somewhat talented team stuck in a tough division. If the Titans could get some better receivers, their offense would be unbeatable with CJ in the backfield.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars(5-11)- The Jaguars are the 2^nd longshot in Vegas for the Super bowl after the Lions, which seems a bit ridiculous to me. I mean they aren’t that good, but I don’t think they are that bad. MJD is a freak of nature, and Garrard will be fighting for his job.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers(12-4)- Another team that is on repeat. They will be 7-4, then rile off 5 games in a row and be the hottest team going into the playoffs before fizzling out in the playoffs. There are too many teams in the AFC that are better than they are, and without Vincent Jackson, their offense won’t be able to cut it.

2. Denver Broncos(8-8)- The rest of this division pretty much sucks, to be blunt. The Broncos are the 2^nd best team, but in other divisions they could be the worst. They have a decent defense but Kyle Orton isn’t a franchise QB.

3. Oakland Raiders(6-10)- I reallllllly feel for Jason Campbell. Campbell might be the best quarterback in the worst situations ever. At his time in Washington, he had a different Offensive coordinator every year he was there, meaning he had to learn a new offense every year. Now, he’s in Oakland. The good thing for Oakland is he’s the best field general they’ve had since Rich Gannon. He should be able to snag them a few wins.

4. Kansas City Chiefs(3-13)- Yeah they are no good. That’s about all here.

Playoff Seeds

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. San Diego Chargers

3. New York Jets

4. Baltimore Ravens

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Houston Texans

USC and CFB Thoughts

tayke2 On 5:25 PM

Well I watched almost the whole USC game last night, and I can safely assume that based on how well the offense played and how poorly the defense played, I will be taking the over on points scored every game. The defense will have to play better once we get to Pac-10 play, but they have two more games to shake the kinks out. More so then the incredible play of Matt Barkley, I was most impressed by the play of Ronald Johnson. Patrick Turner was never able to be the great player he could have been, and while Damien Williams was solid, he was too small to be a dominant receiver. But last night Rojo showed that he could be as dominant in the receiving game as DJ used to be, and as dangerous as Reggie Bush could be in the punt returning. Given it was Hawaii its too early to crown him, but I think he will easily be the MVP of the USC offense, and could be an early dark horse for Heisman.

As I mentioned in my last post, I will be taking some time on this blog to discuss certain bets that jump out at me. Last night, I took Marshall at +28.5 and USC-Hawaii at over 51. Well both bets were pretty much over at halftime: one good and one bad. I have 3 others that I'm looking at this weekend. One is tonight, and its Arizona at -16.5. Right now its early, but Arizona got an early TD, and I think they will keep adding on hopefully. Tomorrow, I have the under on 53 points scored in two games: Uconn-Michigan, and ND-Purdue. I can see both of these being a defensive struggle, with both games having a 27-17 like score. At least I'm hoping.

Got my last fantasy football draft on Sunday, then its game on. Can't wait. Thanks for reading.

And I'm back!

tayke2 On 11:00 AM

Well it was a great time on the road with my girlfriend Kristal, but now I am back in LA and I am ready for football season!! As I did last year, I will be posting alot about Fantasy Football. I will also be posting some thoughts on a few college and NFL spreads that I think are going to be sure hits. I'll be taking a page out of my boy Vegas Dave's book, who posts videos of his own picks. You can check out his first video here.

The guy really knows his stuff, so I would recommend following alot of what he has to say. I also have alot of poker that I will be playing. I had a pretty rough down swing just before I left, and I'm now playing for prize pools that are a fraction of what I normally play for, but the Mini Ftops is coming up, and I will try to grind the satellites to make some money that way. So far so good, as I have turned one 22 buck sat win into 72 tourney bucks. I will post my schedule as it comes up.

I think I will end up with 5 fantasy football teams this year. I will have 2 public teams, one auto draft one regular, and 3 family league teams. I have my yearly family league, but this year the Taylor family and Kristal decided to have our own league where each one of us has 2 teams. It will certainly make the Christmas football viewing that much more fun. As of right now, I think I like my public live draft team the best.

QB	Tom Brady (NE - QB)	Cin	Sun 10:00 am	15.2076
WR	Roddy White (Atl - WR)	@Pit	Sun 10:00 am	10.242
WR	Percy Harvin (Min - WR)	@NO	Thu 5:30 pm	8.191
WR	Donald Driver (GB - WR)	@Phi	Sun 1:15 pm	6.454
RB	Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)	Oak	Sun 10:00 am	19.546
RB	Steven Jackson (StL - RB)	Ari	Sun 1:15 pm	11.736
TE	Dallas Clark (Ind - TE)	@Hou	Sun 10:00 am	10.189
K	Nate Kaeding (SD - K)	@KC	Mon 7:15 pm	8.52
DEF	San Francisco (SF - DEF)	@Sea	Sun 1:15 pm	9.8

My whole family league draft is on Sunday. I'll be sure to post that team once its drafted. Hope you enjoyed reading so far, and get ready for alot of cooler talk, as I rededicate myself to the blog. Thanks for reading guys, and beat the Rainbows!!

Poker, Football, and everything sports

Its NFL Time Baby!!!

The Big One

NFL Playoff Predictions

NFC Preview

NFL Preview: The AFC

USC and CFB Thoughts

And I'm back!

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