Well the USA got robbed on the last goal against Slovenia but the England Algeria game went about as perfect as we could have asked for. Right now, here are the current standings in Group C.
1. Slovenia: 4 points. +1 Goal differential. 3 Goals
2. USA: 2 points 0 Goal Differential. 3 Goals
3. England: 2 points. 0 Goal Differential. 1 Goal
4. Algeria: 1 point. 0 Goal Differntial. 0 Goals.
With the England tie, not only does USA now control their own destiny, not only do we now have a great shot at the 1 seed, but now we don't even have to win to get in the 2nd round. They can't lose, but if they tie Algeria, they can still get in if one of two things happens in the England Slovenia game. If Slovenia wins, they get the 1 seed, and we get the 2 seed. If England and Slovenia tie, and England gets less then two more goals then us, we advance. Ex. we tie 1-1 and they tie 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2, we advance based on scoring more goals. But USA is looking to win against Algeria, and here's what could happen if they win.
Again if USA wins they are in no matter what. If Slovenia beats England, they get the #1 seed regardless of what we do. However, if we win, and Slovenia and England ties or England wins, then its gets exciting...and confusing.
Scenario #1- USA wins by 1 goal and England and Slovenia tie: This gives USA and Slovenia 5 points, and eliminates England from the group. If England and Slovenia tie, and Slovenia scores more goals then us, they get the 1 seed and we get the 2. If we score more goals then them, we get the 1 they get the 2. So if we win 2-1 and they tie 1-1, we get the top seed. The goal differential is the key.
Scenario #2- USA wins by 1 goal and England Wins: Again, this comes down to goal differential here. However, USA has a great advantage here, as they have 2 more goals then England. So if USA and England both win by 1 goal, then England needs to have two more goals then USA to tie with them. Essentially, USA can win 1-0 and England can win 2-1, and we would still get the 1 seed. If England wins by 2 goals and we win by 1, they get the 1 seed and we get the 2. Essentially, we just have to match whatever England does. England has to outscore us to jump us. We have the advantage here.
Scenario #3- USA wins by multiple goals: If USA can win by multiple goals, it will make them veryyy hard to catch. Slovenia could still tie and advance, but they would get the 2 seed. If England wins, they would have to absolutely destroy Slovenia, having to beat them by 3-4 goals just to catch us. However, its important to note that even if we beat Algeria by 3 or 4 goals, Slovenia can still grab the 1 seed if they win.
Ok so I know that was alot to follow. I'll give you the cliff notes here. USA needs to win and have England win in a close, low scoring game. If that happens, USA gets the 1 seed, England gets the 2, and Slovenia is out. Slovenia has control over the #1 seed, but USA can control their destiny. A win, and they are in.
NOW, as if that weren't enough to keep track of, we MUST also watch Group D. After Germany's loss today, the group is up in the air. Serbia and Germany have 3 points, and Ghana is in the drivers seat, with 3 points and a match up with Australia, the weakest team in the group, tomorrow. Now if USA gets the 1 seed, there's a good chance we could play Germany in the 2nd round if Ghana can grab the one seed. I'll make it easy for everyone. The PERFECT scenario is Ghana ties Australia, Germany beats Ghana, then Serbia ties Australia. IF that happens, Germany gets the 1, and Ghana gets the 2.
In essence, things aren't much more cleared up now then they were 4 hours ago. But here's what we know now. USA controls their own destiny to win, and is 2nd in line for the top spot. All the questions will be answered next week. Hope you guys followed all that, and thanks for reading!
Group C Scenarios
tayke2
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1:28 PM
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KT, thanks for the breakdown. I understand this stuff pretty quickly, but I linked to this in my own blog post (http://jtstally.blogspot.com/2010/06/he-blew-it.html). It saves me the time of having to explain the scenario and you've made it very clear for all readers.
Thanks buddy! Yeah the Ghana Australia match is huge tomorrow I think a tie would be ideal for us. Would much rather take on Ghana then Germany and still get the 1 seed.